Why So Serious? V2 — Prediction-Market Execution Lab
Forward-monitored dashboard for Kalshi BTC/ETH markets, cross-venue execution context, and q=10 paper strategy tracking
Overview
What happens when traditional market-microstructure signals and modern machine-learning models are applied to one of finance's fastest-moving and least mature markets? This project tests whether prediction markets are already efficient or whether their Wild West structure leaves money on the table once liquidity, latency, and execution costs are taken seriously.
To investigate that question properly, I built an infrastructure for collecting and synchronizing Kalshi BTC and ETH order books with centralized-exchange spot data, evaluating signals without look-ahead bias, simulating executable fills, enforcing risk limits, and maintaining auditable decision, fill, and P&L records.
Architecture
Market data flows through a single synchronized state and a forward-valid evaluation path before any simulated execution, with risk controls and an auditable ledger ahead of monitoring.
- 01Kalshi L2 + centralized-exchange spot L2
- 02Synchronized market state
- 03Forward-valid signal evaluation
- 04VWAP execution simulation
- 05Strategy & portfolio risk controls
- 06Decision, fill & P&L ledger
- 07Monitoring dashboard
Capabilities
Persistent, synchronized market data
Continuous BTC and ETH capture across Kalshi contract and centralized-exchange spot order books, with full L2 books aligned into a single market state at approximately five-second cadence.
Strict no-lookahead evaluation
Forward-validation gates ensure signals are evaluated only on information available at decision time.
VWAP execution & liquidity modelling
Execution is simulated against book depth using VWAP fills, reflecting realistic liquidity and slippage assumptions.
Strategy & global risk limits
Risk controls operate at both the strategy level and across the portfolio, constraining exposure and sizing.
Versioned deployments & health checks
Services run across cloud VMs with versioned deployment workflows and automated health monitoring.
Auditable decisions, fills & P&L
Every decision, simulated fill, and P&L movement is recorded in an auditable ledger for review and analysis.
System dashboard
Live system dashboard
The live dashboard tracks BTC and ETH prediction-market execution experiments — core paper strategies, challenger monitors, and an observational research watchlist — with forward paper performance reported separately from historical research evidence. Research-only system; no real orders are placed from this dashboard.